[Salon] G20: Last waltz in a world torn apart

[Chas Freeman <cwfresidence@gmail.com>]

https://www.indianpunchline.com/g20-last-waltz-in-a-world-torn-apart/

G20: Last waltz in a world torn apart

September 3, 2023 by M. K. BHADRAKUMAR

Chinese President Xi Jinping (standing) with foreign minister Wang Yi
(C) and Russian foreign minister Sergey Lavrov (R) at the recent BRICS
summit in Johannesburg, South Africa

The Modi government is not perplexed by the absence of Russian
President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping in the G20
Summit on September 9-10. Its intuitive cognition helps to be stoical.
This is, arguably, a Shakespearean predicament — “I am in blood /
Stepped in so far, that, should I wade no more, / Returning were as
tedious as go o’er.”

India’s high-calibre diplomats would have divined some time ago
already that an event conceived in the world of yesterday, before the
new cold war came roaring in, wouldn’t have the same scale and
significance today.

Yet, Delhi must feel disappointed, as the compulsions of Putin or Xi
Jinping have nothing to do with their countries’ relations with India.
The government has given a bureaucratic spin that “The level of
attendance at global summits varies from year to year. In today’s
world with so many demands on the leaders’ time, it is not always
possible for every leader to attend every summit.”

That said, Delhi administration is sprucing up the city, removing the
slums from public view, adding new alluring hoardings to catch the eye
of the foreign dignitaries, and even lining flower pots along the
roads their motorcades pass.

One doesn’t have to be a rocket scientist to figure out that the
common thread in the decisions taken in Moscow and Beijing is that
their leaderships are not in the least interested in any interaction
with the US President Joe Biden who will be camping in Delhi for four
days with all the time at his disposal for some structured meetings,
at the very least, some “pull asides” and the like at a minimum that
could be caught on camera.

Biden’s considerations are political: anything that helps to distract
attention from the gathering storm in US politics which is threatening
to culminate in his impeachment that might in turn blight his
candidacy in the 2024 election.

Of course, this not Biden’s Lyndon Johnson moment. Johnson made the
tumultuous decision in March 1968 to retire from politics as a strong
step toward healing the nation’s fissures, while agonising deeply that
“There is division in the American house now.”

But Biden is anything but a visionary. He was setting up a bear trap
for Putin to reinforce his false narrative that if only the latter
dismounted from his high horse, the Ukraine war would end overnight,
whereas on its part, the Kremlin is well aware that the White House
continues to be the strongest proponent of the thesis that a prolonged
war would weaken Russia. Indeed, Biden has gone to extraordinary
extents that none of this predecessors ever dared to reach — aiding
and abetting Ukrainian terrorist attacks deep inside Russia.

In a way, Xi Jinping also faces a trap, as Biden administration is
going to great extent to project itself as conciliatory toward China,
as the beeline of US officials heading for Beijing recently would
testify — Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken in June; Treasury
Secretary and Climate Envoy John Kerry in July; and Commerce Secretary
Gina Raimondo in August.

The New York Times on Tuesday carried a report titled U.S. Officials
Are Streaming to China. Will Beijing Return the Favor? It chastised
Beijing:

“China has much to gain from dispatching officials to the United
States. It would signal to the world it was making an effort to ease
tensions with Washington, particularly at a time when China needs to
bolster confidence in its shaky economy. A visit could also help lay
the groundwork for a potential, highly anticipated meeting between
President Biden and China’s top leader, Xi Jinping, at a forum in San
Francisco in November.

“Beijing, however, has been noncommittal.”

The point is, all this while, Washington has also been incessantly
taunting and provoking Beijing with belligerence and through
calculated means to weaken China’s economy and incite Taiwan and the
ASEAN countries to line up as the US’ Indo-Pacific allies, apart from
vilifying China.

Both Putin and Xi Jinping have learnt the hard way that Biden is a
past-master in doublespeak, saying one thing behind closed doors and
acting entirely to the contrary, often being rude and offensive at a
personal level in unprecedented display of boorish public diplomacy.

Of course, the symbolism of US-Russian “reconciliation” on Indian
soil, howsoever contrived, can only work to Washington’s advantage to
pull Modi away from India’s hugely consequential strategic partnership
with Russia at a juncture when the West’s entreaties over Ukraine
failed to get resonance in the Global South.

As it is, India’s misconceived participation in the recent “peace
talks” in Jeddah (which was actually the brainwave of the White House
NSA Jake Sullivan) created misperceptions that Modi government “will
be part of the implementation of the 10-point peace formula proposed
by Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and the details are being
discussed.”

Both Moscow and Beijing will be extremely wary of the Biden
administration’s booby traps aimed at creating misunderstanding in
their mutual relationships and create misperceptions about the
stability of the Russian-Chinese strategic relationship at a critical
juncture when Putin is preparing to visit Beijing.

Putin’s possible visit to China in October can be considered as a
response to Xi Jinping’s March visit to Moscow, but it has a
substantial content as evident from Beijing’s invitation to him to be
the main speaker at the third Belt and Road Forum marking the 10th
anniversary of the appearance of BRI in Chinese foreign policies.

Although in 2015 Putin and Xi signed a joint statement on cooperation
on “linking the construction of the Eurasian Economic Union and the
Silk Road Economic Belt”, so far Moscow’s support to BRI has been more
of a declaratory character falling short of accession to it. The
Chinese side, when it is convenient, mentions Russia as a Belt and
Road country, while Moscow simply adheres to the previous
formulations.

This may change with Putin’s visit in October, and if so, it could be
a historic game changer for the dynamics of Sino-Russian partnership
and for the flow of international politics as a whole.

Indian diplomats hope to produce a joint document that papers over the
contradictions, which are not only over Ukraine but also climate
change, the debt obligations of emerging markets, the Sustainable
Development Goals, digital transformation, energy and food security,
and so on. The confrontational line of the collective West poses a
major obstacle.

The G20 foreign ministers failed to adopt a joint declaration, and the
deliberations, under pressure from the G7 countries, “strayed into
emotional statements,” as Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov later
said. Putin and Xi probably do not expect any breakthrough solutions
from the G20 summit.

The strong likelihood is that the forthcoming Delhi event this weekend
may turn out to be the last waltz of its kind between the cowboys of
the Western world and the increasingly restless Global South. The
revival of the anti-colonial struggle in Africa is ominous. Quite
obviously, Russia and China are putting their eggs in the BRICS
basket.